Read more: Wiring China for the Next Telecom Era

Read more: TD’s Hard Life in China’s Wireless World

By staff reporters Ming Shuliang and Ouyang Changzheng

Led by the state council, China is initiating a large-scale research plan for a 4G standard, successful development of which could shape the 4G landscape of China and beyond, as reported in Caijing Magazine’s recent cover stories “Wiring China for the Next Telecom Era” and “TD’s Hard Life in China’s Wireless World”.

The transition from 3G to 4G will lead to a dramatic increase in data transmission speed from two megabits per second (mbps) to 1,000 mbps. If 3G took mobile phones to the threshold of images and video, 4G will bring them into an era of the superhighway where downloading full-length films will require only seconds.

The research project “Next-Generation Broadband Wireless Mobile Communications Network”, which will stretch over 15 years, has already received the government’s backing. Premier Wen Jiabao approved December 2007 the project in principle, and the Ministry of Finance (MOF) will allocate at least 20 billion yuan for R&D, with the total investment in the project expected to exceed 70 billion yuan.

“The central financial administration will mostly invest in the early stages of basic research,” a source close to the MOF revealed, “and product development and industrialization will mostly come from the market.”

Caijing confirmed from multiple sources that the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) will likely form a new body responsible for the coordination and organization of R&D efforts and to manage the use of state R&D funds. According to those close to the project, the details of the plan could be announced at the People’s Congress in March.

The composition of participants in the project is still unknown, but one thing is certain. Unlike Datang’s lone involvement in the development of the TD standard, China’s homegrown 3G telecom standard, there will be multiple participants – Datang, ZTE and Huawei among likely candidates – in the 4G technology R&D.

Having multiple participants in the project is expected to bring a variety of technological possibilities during the evolution of China’s future 4G technology. Zhao Xinxiang, Angilent China engineer pointed to different approaches of Chinese telecom equipment manufacturers in their 4G strategy and direction as evidence of the potential.

It seems that the framework China has created for its 4G R&D is more open and advanced than that for the TD standard.

Concerns linger from TD era

An outline of the plan Caijingobtained, indicates that the TD development process, which has deeply affected China’s telecom industry for the past ten years, will continue to exert its influence for the next ten years.

“A project of ten-plus years must always have a foothold, from which to develop” said Li Shihe, former chief scientist with Datang who is also dubbed “Father of TD”.

However, TD’s failure is a cause for concern for the 4G project.

TD’s biggest problem has been that this supposedly “international standard” was adopted only by domestic enterprises. The only exception is South Korea’s SK Telecom, which built a small, domestic TD trial network in 2007. But those familiar with the progress of the network say this was just a “gift” given for the purpose of entering the China market. Networks used by Korea’s domestic companies were all indifferent.

“TD needs to understand that successfully breaking into the markets of developed countries is exceedingly difficult,” an MII official said, “Operators will certainly choose the most mature, most industrialized and strongest technical standard.”

TD, even to this day, has been unable to put out competitive end-products. Its products have experienced a multitude of problems, which increases operators’ risks, thereby making them unwilling to participate in the battle for a homegrown 3G standard.

“TD acts as a mirror – it has objectively reflected China’s level of proficiency in telecommunications research, development and industrialization, and especially the government’s ability to organize implementation,” said Professor Lou Peide of Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, “The most critical problem lies in how best to unite the government’s determination and the market’s choice.”

On the new path toward 4G, China must take to heart the lessons gleaned from TD process and build an open, market-based framework that welcomes all possibilities.

Possibility of International Cooperation?

In November 2007, the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) General Assembly approved China Mobile Union’s proposed framework structure for LTE-TDD integration. LTE has various technical proposals divided into the two main categories of FDD and TDD. China Mobile’s integration proposal would integrate the LTE-TDD framework structure into a form compatible with LTE-FDD.

“Europe had also been working on a TDD version of LTE. If two TDD programs were to emerge, it would risk TD only being used in China rather than becoming an international standard,” former China Mobile Group vice president Li Mofang told Caijing. “China Mobile suggested bringing the two TDD programs together.”

For this kind of integration program, both sides had to make compromises and concessions. Li believes the proposal, "does as much as possible to retain China’s intellectual property rights and is very favorable for China."

The LTE-TDD integrated standard has much more international participation than TD.

The good news is that TD is merging with a mainstream standard. The bad news is that China’s telecom equipment manufacturers have gone from leaders in the 3G era to mere participants in LTE-TDD, and American and European manufacturers, opponents to TD in the 3G era, have now become allies.

“This isn’t a victory for TD,” a technology department manager at a Chinese telecom operator said, “In fact, it’s another step toward the marginalization of TD -- a homegrown international standard reduced to one unit of an international standard.”

Nevertheless, supporters of the move are still in the majority. Integrating into the mainstream international standard is better than being just a Chinese standard.

The integration may have far-reaching implications for the development of China’s own standard. As Hou Ziqiang, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Acoustics told Caijing, “The [4G] future is settled. China and LTE will unite and move forward together. The chances of China proposing its own [4G standard] are slim.”