
The Jolt that Rattled China
The worst earthquake in decades hit China's southwest Sichuan province May 12, causing a death toll that could eventually surpass 70,000. Right after the magnitude 8.0 seismic shock, the Chinese government took prompt actions including the flight of Premier Wen Jiabao and half of the state cabinet to the epicenter to guide the fast and difficult rescue work. More than 11,000 troops were deployed in the quake hit region.
The scenes of shattered villages and devastated schools were broadcast widely across the nation in real time, resulting in a massive campaign of donations. Volunteers poured into the disaster hit zone, indicating a maturing civil society. Two weeks after the quake, China held a three-day national mourning for the dead.
More than 5,000 aftershocks since May 12 continue to rattle Sichuan and nearby Gansu Province. Moreover, earthquake-induced barrier lakes pose new risks to local residents. Their possible breach could inundate downstream villages and cities, causing more casualties.
The immediate challenge is to prevent contagious disease stemming from debris, dead bodies, the lack of water and trash treatment facilities in the region. Troops have quarantined the worst-hit Beichuan County, but officials rejected the rumor that contagious disease is spreading there.
The jolt also brought to light an array of questions ranging from science to logistics. Scientists said that earthquake prediction is still very difficult, if not impossible, but buildings can be constructed to withstand heavy shocks.
For the first time, international rescue teams entered China, after several days' delay, to help search for survivors. They found one. Their presence, however, marked a more open mind on the Chinese side but Japanese rescue workers regret that smoother coordination may have yielded better results.
China's Economic Aftershock
Economy
A discriminatory credit lending policy does not mean that the authority will overhaul its tightened monetary policy. A direct injection to hard-hit regions by the central government is likely to be the most effective and risk-proof.
Telecom
China's fast-growing telecommunication industry appeared fragile when facing last week's earthquake. Large numbers of local base stations stopped operating due to power shutdowns and transmission failures caused by the quake.
Power
Devastation caused by the earthquake has threatened many of Sichuan's hydropower plants and resulted in mounting losses. Experts forecasted that disrupted hydropower generation will cause short-term tension for the province's power supply and possible price repercussions for electricity buyers nationwide. The quake has forced the province to consider its future energy structure which currently relies mainly on small scale hydropower plants.
Real Estate
The once flourishing property market in Chengdu may face hard times after the earthquake. The devastating disaster will restrain people's spending and affect the region's planned property projects, causing an even tighter capital chain for developers. What the market is now mostly concerned with are the continued macro policy trends following the quake.
Agriculture
Preliminary data indicates that impacts on agricultural production will be lesser than that during the snow storm earlier this year. Yet, experts worry the price of pork may slump towards the second half the year, which may dampen confidence in farming.
Insurance
Due to the low coverage of insurance in the hard-hit region, the mega earthquake will not affect China's insurers as significantly as global natural disaster normally would. But, instituting an insurance mechanism against natural catastrophes is urgent for the country.
Stockmarket
May 14, two days after the quake, 34 out of the 66 public companies based in the affected Sichuan Province resumed trading, and their stocks all soared. But, the market fluctuated in the following days and a "post-shock reconstruction" concept did not appear to work. Securities authorities intervened to attempt to stabilize the market.
Banking
Bank of Agriculture, arguably the most affected financial institution, said NPLs have soared 6 billion yuan. It is an open question for Chinese commercial banks that post-quake rebuilding may cause increases in non-performing loans.