By intern reporter Sun Haomu

During the Beijing Games, whether near the Olympic Green or at the marathon, observers who looked away from the competitions might have noticed an unassuming Volkswagen Passat Lingyu car. Only a small sign reading “Fuel Cell” on its side gave away its secret.

Instead of gasoline, this vehicle ran on a hydrogen fuel cell, which is basically a battery. As a replacement for traditional fuel tanks, a hydrogen tank can store three kilograms of compressed hydrogen. Based on consumption of one kilogram per 100 kilometers, a Lingyu with a full tank can travel 300 kilometers. Its cruising speed has exceeded 140 km/hr.  

There were 20 such vehicles operating during the Games, the first time that fuel cell cars had a demonstration run in China, as opposed to experimental use.

Perfect Theory, Costly Realities

Actually, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles made their debut in China two years ago. In June, 2006, three hydrogen fuel cell public buses hit Beijing’s streets. The vehicles, known as Citaro buses, cost US$1.8 million each and were part of a commercialization project supported by the United Nations Development Program, the Global Environment Fund, and the Ministry of Science and Technology. These buses made China one of the first countries to showcase operational fuel cell buses.

Using hydrogen as a replacement for gasoline could ease the pressure on petroleum supplies and, since hydrogen fuel cell production only yields water as a by-product, there is no concern about greenhouse gas emissions. That combination makes hydrogen fuel cell vehicles a perfect choice -- in theory.

In reality, there’s a roadblock: high cost. For one thing, fuel cells need a catalyst, and the models now in use require platinum. The amount needed is only at the nanometer level, but with platinum costing more than US$ 1,300 per ounce, even a tiny amount is extremely expensive.

Another issue is reliance on imports. Many of the components and materials needed for fuel cell vehicles are made domestically. However, a spokesman for China’s largest fuel cell manufacturer, Shanghai Shenli Technology, Jin Lei, told Caijing that key materials for the catalysts and proton exchange membranes must still be imported. Thus, there are price and supply concerns.

More importantly, many key fuel cell components are still being produced only at the experimental stage, so the unit cost is far higher than for commercial production.

Industry experts told Caijing that a hydrogen fuel cell car in China costs about 1 million yuan, while a public bus equipped with fuel cell technology could cost as much as 3 million yuan. But drivers can easily get a decent conventionally fueled car in China for 300,000 yuan.

The vehicle cost, moreover, is only part of the equation. To popularize these vehicles would require far greater investment across the economy -- for example, building a network of hydrogen stations for refueling. Without convenient fueling stations, how many consumers will want to buy hydrogen-powered vehicles? Another question is whether the companies that now supply gasoline and diesel fuel will want to invest in supplying hydrogen.

From consumer acceptance to the manufacturing technology to the fuel infrastructure, petroleum-fuel based vehicles represent a proven, mature technology that will be hard to replace.

Fueling stations are springing up in the United States, Japan and Europe, but such facilities are few and far between -- certainly, insufficient to support the transition from traditional vehicles to the hydrogen era. 

In China, the base is even weaker. There are only two hydrogen stations -- one in Beijing’s Zhongguancun’s High-Tech Development Zone and one in Shanghai’s Anting. These two stations were jointly developed and are operated by Tsinghua University and Tongji University. The two universities also provide hydrogen-fueling services during demonstration runs such as those in Beijing and carry out research and development.

Yu Zhuoping, the dean of Tongji University’s Automotive Department and a member of the “863” conservation and new energy source car project, a high-profile, state-funded program, proposed an idea during an interview with Caijing. Suppose, he said, that China could build a few dozen hydrogen stations in any given city. Tens of thousands of vehicles could go into production, costs would decrease, and the advantages of hydrogen fuel cell cars would soon become apparent.

“Along with technology, China needs someone [to take action] to break the stalemate,” Yu said.

The domestic technology needs improvement, too. That’s where demonstration runs can be important. As Tsinghua University automotive studies professor Chen Quanshi told Caijing, such runs uncover problems and help identify solutions.

For example, during the Olympics, as fuel cell public buses made demonstration runs in hot, humid Beijing, problems with the heat and moisture control systems appeared. Cold could be a problem, too: domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicles cannot withstand temperatures much lower than 5 to 10 degrees Celsius below freezing. That could bring fuel cell buses to a standstill in Beijing’s frigid winters.

Are They Really “Green”?

The source of hydrogen for fuel cells has become a point of controversy. As it now stands, the hydrogen at existing domestic fuel stations is produced primarily from fossil fuels such as natural gas and coal. Critics contend that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles ultimately depend on fossil fuel and therefore are not “clean” vehicles.

However, Tsinghua University automotive studies professor Mao Zongqiang told Caijing that the future of hydrogen vehicles lies in a different direction than fossil fuels, which is why scientists consider that hydrogen will become the energy source of the future.

Although hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can, potentially, ease resource constraints and address environmental problems, it is widely accepted that commercial production is years away. A U.S. National Research Council report released this July predicts that the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle fleet won’t show significant growth until 2015. The industry consensus is that commercial production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will occur between 2015 and 2020.

In the transition period, when fuel cell cars do not yet have an obvious advantage, the vehicle industry might introduce models with multiple fuel sources. The most likely would be hybrid gas-electric technology. The range of technology needed to produce these vehicles is relatively limited and cost-effective mass production could soon become feasible.

Hybrids have their own limitations. Yu told Caijing that only in urban, stop-and-go traffic would the energy-saving advantages of hybrid power actually be reflected. For high-speed highway use, hybrids are not yet efficient enough to be competitive.

In China’s case, the question is how to be competitive, under the premise that rapid industrialization cannot happen in leaps and bounds. Somebody has to lay the foundations for the “hydrogen economy,” and it will be an ambitious assignment regardless if it’s government or business that undertakes the task.

At present, it looks as if it will be the government. Many industry insiders believe that under the leadership of Science and Technology Minister Wan Gang, the hydrogen fuel cell has been designated as the country’s future core vehicle technology.

The vice-director of the ministry’s Development Division, Zhang Qinyong, told Caijing that after the Beijing Games, China would actively promote the development of alternative-fuel vehicles, including those using hydrogen fuel cell technology. At the same time, Zhang said, the government would push for the implementation of necessary central and local concessions and initiatives.

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