In Henan’s agricultural Taikang County, more than 50 percent of the rural workers are categorized as “surplus labor.” The country’s exported-oriented industrial boom was absorbing this surplus before the recession hit.

A December survey on Chongqing migrant returnees by the local Labor and Social Insurance Administration found 95 percent had studied no higher than high school and less than 5 percent received vocational training. Most had manufacturing jobs at factories producing appliances, clothing, toys, shoes and other goods.

Analysts say the first migrants let go tend to be those less educated with few skills. So in the face of pessimistic economic forecasts, authorities in some labor-exporting regions have their eyes on job training as a solution. The central government is also expected to increase financial support this year for rural vocational training, targeting opportunities for migrants in particular. 

But the training initiative got off to a slow start. Most villagers who spoke with Caijing in Henan did not know about the vocational training policies announced by the central government, nor did they know where training could be found.

In Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan, the government issued training vouchers to rural workers and unemployed college graduates. But outside the city, training is hard to find.

At a vocational training school in Chonqing’s Kaixian County, only one in four teachers earned a certificate in a science or technology field. Training programs for jobs in machinery and electronics are in high demand, but the school lacks equipment and internships.

Liu Peiming, director of the Kaixian Labor Office, told Caijing teacher qualifications will improve and more training will be provided for jobs urgently needed, such as welding, in 2009.

But it’s unclear how much training will be needed. One reason is that the current employment tracking system used by city and county governments fails to paint a true picture; migrant labor is not included in the statistics.

Some light can be shed with data from Beijing and Shanghai. In 2004, migrant workers in each city contributed about one-third of local GDP, according to the Analysis and Forecast of the Economic Situation of Chinese Farmers 2008, authored by the Rural Development Institute of the Academy of Social Sciences and the State Statistics Bureau. It also said migrants contributed 11 percent to the GDP in Jiangsu Province and 17 percent in Zhejiang Province.

Despite their contribution to the prosperity from China’s urban boom and industrialization, migrant workers have yet to fully benefit. This fact is being increasingly recognized by urban authorities, who acknowledge they’ve paid too little attention to the needs of migrant workers in areas such as urban planning, housing, community management and public services.

Zhang Hongyu, head of the Department of Policies and Regulations at the Ministry of Agriculture, said unemployment among migrant workers was not only a result of the global financial crisis but also a tied to the failure of local governments to support migrant workers with education, healthcare, social security and welfare services.

A key issue is the hukou system. A hukou is an identification card issued by a person’s hometown. It determines access to public services, and bars migrant workers from opportunities available to natives of the communities where they toil. A hukou determines where a child can be educated and a retiree’s pension.

Many experts say the hukou system should be reformed to integrate migrant workers into urban social networks.

“New measures and investment should target stabilizing the employment and living conditions of migrant workers in urban areas in the long run,” said Li Tie, a senior official with the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s chief government planner.

The central government’s 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus package, announced last fall, may be combined with steps aimed at changing the hukou regime.

“I can’t imagine that the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package will be used to build only railways and mega-infrastructure projects without bolstering this creative group of people, the migrant laborers,” Li said. “By supporting them, we will be able to stimulate the economy and stabilize jobs.”

Currently, rural migrants stand little chance of obtaining an urban hukou. But a generation of rural Chinese born since the 1970s tends to identify with urban life, and many have no farming experience, said Cui Chuanyi, a research fellow at the State Council’s Development Research Center.

Therefore it can’t be assumed that all or even most of jobless migrants returning home for Spring Festival will stay in the countryside, said Zhao Shukai, deputy secretary-general of the China Development Research Foundation.

Perhaps a part-time job, help from a friend or a little savings will be enough for many young adults who decide to continue as migrant workers in 2009, at least for awhile. They’ll enjoy Spring Festival with their families, but ultimately return to China’s cities and factory towns in search of livelihoods.

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