By staff reporters Chang Hongxiao, Ren Bo, Deng Hai, Zhou Qiong, Li Weiao, Li Peng and Zhang Yanling

Few signs of modern China’s market reforms have been as predictable – or dramatic -- as the annual trek by up to 130 million migrant workers who travel from cities and factory towns to celebrate Spring Festival at home with their families.

The human tide swells as the holiday period starts in late January or early February, according to the lunar calendar, and swells again about a week later when migrants return to workshop regions along China’s coast, mainly from Shandong to Guangdong provinces.

Spring Festival is a cherished pause for the migrant workers who fuel China’s economic engine. The massive traveling tradition – the world’s largest annual movement of humanity -- began in the 1980s, paralleling the nation’s open market reforms.

As the big day approaches, factories and construction projects staffed by migrants slowly wind down. Workers stuff suitcases and clamber aboard crowded trains or buses for trips that may take days. Once back in their “lao jia” – hometowns – they enjoy family meals and catching up.

This year, however, the global economic crisis upset the migrant ritual. As usual, factories emptied and migrants went home. But some left against their will, months before the Spring Festival day January 26. And as the festivities ended, many workers were expected to stay in the countryside, unemployed, with nowhere to go.

Indeed, the holiday rush started earlier than usual. About 10 percent of the nation’s migrants had returned home by the end of December, according to Caijing estimates based on media reports and statistics from labor and social security authorities in 14 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions.

Some returned as early as October. Some quit their jobs, others were fired. Many worked at small- to medium-sized exporters in coastal areas that were forced to close or halt production lines when overseas demand faltered.

In Henan Province, home to the country’s largest pool of migrant labor, 3.37 million workers had returned from distant job sites by December 20. Provincial labor authorities blamed the global recession for 60 percent of the influx. By the start of Spring Festival, Henan’s returnees were expected to exceed 8 million, up 36 percent from 2008.

No one knows how many Henan natives lost their jobs, temporarily of permanently, before making long trips home. Nor is it possible to gauge the number of migrants who chose not to go home. The government has yet to publish a comprehensive report on the nationwide situation.

Caijing went looking for answers. Over a three-month period, reporters traveled to areas with major pools of migrant workers – the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Henan, Hebei and Sichuan provinces, as well as Chongqing Municipality. The reporters sought to piece together a picture of the changes under way for the migrant labor phenomenon. A combined report follows.

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