
By researcher Colin Jones
(Caijing.com.cn) The governor of China’s central bank
has called for a new “super-sovereign” currency to depose the dollar from its
central role as the global standard.
Zhou Xiaochuan’s proposal, posted March 23 on the Web
site of the People’s Bank of China, 10 days before an economic summit of world
leaders in London, was the latest indication that China is uncomfortable with
the contingent value of its massive dollar
reserves.
The global financial crisis and “its spillover to the
entire world reflects the inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the
existing international monetary system,” said Zhou.
He suggested each country relinquish control of a portion
of its reserves to the International Monetary Fund in exchange for a claim to
IMF assets. This claim, known as a Special Drawing Right, could then be traded
for other currencies and eventually become a means of payment in its own right,
said Zhou.
Earlier on March 13, Chinese Premier Wen Jiaobao said he
was “a little bit worried” about the security of China’s U.S assets. And a few
days earlier, the director of the National Economic Research Institute, Wang
Xiaolu, wrote in a guest column for Caijing, “Having already loaned half of
China’s foreign exchange reserves” to the United States “we have gotten into a
spot where we have to keep lending to protect our previous investments. But by
(buying) more dollars, we tie ourselves to a leaking boat.”
As the U.S. government has continued borrowing to finance
its economic bailout plan, Beijing has increasingly questioned the security of
China’s dollar-denominated reserves. Totaling US$ 696.2 billion at year-end
2008, China’s U.S. Treasury bond investment is the largest in the world.
Neither the United States nor the dollar were mentioned
by name in Zhou’s essay, but the implication was clear as he expressed concern
that over-reliance on a single, national currency has increased instability in
the global economy.
“The frequency and increasing intensity of financial
crises following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system,” after which the
dollar became the de facto currency for international trade, “suggests the costs
of such a system to the world may have exceeded its benefits,” Zhou
wrote.
He said a nationally independent, “super-sovereign”
global reserve currency would prevent the kind of credit spike that precipitated
the ongoing financial crisis.
“Although crisis may not necessarily be an intended
result of the issuing authorities, it is an inevitable outcome of institutional
flaws,” Zhou said.
Russian officials made a similar argument recently after
meeting with central bank managers from China, India and Brazil. Moscow said it
would propose the creation of a new international currency at the G20 summit in
London on April 2.
Michael Pettis, a professor at Peking University’s
Guanghua School of Management, said recent proposals for an international
currency are likely more politically motivated than they are practical.
There are a number of problems with an international
currency, said Pettis, chief among them being how to decide the money supply.
“Determining the amount of SDR in circulation is either extremely political, as
it is in Europe with the euro, or the supply is tightly regulated, which gets
into the same issues we saw during the gold standard,” said
Pettis.
Yesterday, U.S. President Obama voiced opposition to an
international currency during a televised news conference. That same day, U.S.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Feral Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told
a congressional hearing they would categorically renounce the U.S. moving toward
a global currency.
Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair told Caijing March 25 after a climate conference in Beijing he thought Zhou’s proposal was interesting, but he wasn’t sure about its feasibility. “I think you are more likely to find several strong currencies in the world,” Blair said. “In one sense, it’s the investors who will decide.”