By staff reporter Wang Xu

(Caijing.com.cn) The 3.35 percent year-on-year drop in first-half energy intensity, the biggest decline since 2006, is unlikely to continue in the second half as heavy industry rebounds, a senior researcher said.

Lin Boqiang, director of Xiamen University's energy economics research center, said the decline in energy intensity, or consumption per unit of gross domestic product, was mostly due to a slump in output in several heavy industries.

Energy consumed in the power generation, petrochemical, coal and steel industries contracted in the first half as  demand for their products evaporated amid the financial crisis.

Output didn't decline as steeply in other, less energy-intensive sectors, which therefore had a larger influence in calculating energy intensity.

Light industry, which includes garment manufacturing and home appliance manufacturing, grew by 8.2 percent in the first half, compared with 6.6 percent for heavy industry, Li Xiaochao, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in June.

However, Lin said, energy consumption by heavy industry is likely to rebound as the economy improves, and recent government data points to such a recovery.

On Aug. 1, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said the purchasing managers' index reached 53.2 points in July, the fifth consecutive month the indicator was above the 50-point mark, denoting an expansion.

China's economy grew 7.1 percent year-on-year in the first half and 7.9 percent in the second quarter.

Lin noted that with all signs pointing to strong demand growth going into the second half, the government's target of a 20 percent reduction in energy intensity by 2010, compared with 2006 levels, is becoming more unlikely.

"A reduction of 15 percent to 16 percent is more realistic," Lin said.

Full article in Chinese: http://www.caijing.com.cn/2009-08-03/110220073.html