China Pension Shortfall to be CNY18.3Trl in 2013: Report06-14 14:11 Caijing
China’s pension shortfall is expected to be 18.3 trillion yuan ( about 2.9 trillion U.S. dollars) in the year 2013, according to a report, headed by China’s two leading economists, building a case for a rise of retirement age.
The research group with Fudan University, led by chief economist with the Bank of China Cao Yuanzheng, and Ma Jun, chief China economist for Deutsche Bank AG, conducted the research based on data published by the National Bureau of Statistics.
According to their calculation, China’s pension shortfalls could reach 18.3 trillion yuan in 2013, and 68.2 trillion by 2033, on unchanged pension polices, and assume GDP grows 6 percent annually. That will account 38.7 percent of GDP that year.
China’s pension liability could become a massive fiscal burden as more and more of its population grows grey, the report said, suggesting the retirement age should be raised by seven years to ease pressures.
Among other measures, the government should also transfer 80 percent of shares in state-owned companies to the national pension fund and restructure the public institutions, it said.
A Boston Consulting Group report in late April said deficit in China’s pension system had climbed at an annual growth rate of 25 percent, hitting 195 billion yuan in 2010. The deficit may reach 2.5 trillion yuan in the next 20 years, it predicted.
Government data showed China’s labor pool will begin to shrink from 2015, and
the old over 50 will be 290 million in 2035, compared with 810 million of
working labor force, which means there will be less than two workers for every
retired by the year.
Related: China May Raise Legal Pension Age Under Pressure From Aging（Society）[2012-06-06]
Editors’ Picks »
- 1China to Cut Reserve Ratio for Some Rural Banks
- 2China M2 up 12.1Pc, Outstanding Yuan Loans 13.9 Pc in March
- 3Delayed Response to Tainted Water Raises Concerns
- 4Beijing Ranks 8th City with Most Global Appeal
- 5China's MMG to Acquire Las Bambas
- 6China’s Rare Earth Exchange Begins Trading Following WTO Ruling
- 7China Trade Fair Shadowed by Weak Exports
- 8Alibaba’s Q4 Net Income More than Doubles Ahead of IPO
- 9Embassy Says 2 Chinese Nationals Aboard Capsized S.Korean Ship
- 10South Korean Ferry Sinks off South Coast