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China’s Official PMI, HSBC China PMI Above 50 in Oct.

11-01 10:52 Caijing
Both the HSBC-sponsored PMI and the Chinese government's official PMI point to recovering domestic demands, according to HSBC chief economist Qu Hongbin.

Both China’s official Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) and the HSBC China PMI rebounded in October, a latest sign of recovery in manufacturing activities in the world’s second-largest economy.

The headline PMI came in at 50.2 in October, from 49.8 in September and rebounded above the benchmark of 50 for the first time since August, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday.

The official PMI figures suggest that a faster implementation of China’s fiscal program on the economy has begun to take effect, according to ANZ in a latest report.

“As the Chinese government has accelerated the approval of large projects since May, with preliminary investment amounting to RMB7.0trn, we believe a stronger economic rebound towards H1 2013 will take place after the leadership transition,” ANZ said.

ANZ maintained its earlier forecast that China’s GDP growth will rebound to around 8% y/y in Q4.

Meanwhile, final reading of HSBC China PMI is 49.5 compared with 47.9 in the prior month, with new orders rebounding to 51.2, its first time in expansionary territory since October of last year.

October's final PMI rose to an eight-month high, implying that China's industrial activity continues to bottom out following a modest pick-up last month, HSBC economist Hongbin Qu said.

The two PMI figures delivered the same message that domestic demands are recovering, Qu said.

New exports orders declined in October from 44.9 in September, but with a slower pace, compared with the previous month, a sign that exports outlook remains challenging.

Meanwhile, employment stayed below 50 for the eighth consecutive month, highlighting continuing pressures in the job market, Qu said.

“IP in October is likely to bounce back to about 10% while the GDP growth rise to above 7.5%,” he said.

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