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February’s flash reading for HSBC’s China manufacturing PMI rose to a four-month high of 49.7, compared to 48.8 in January.
Surprise RRR Cut Boosts Global Risk-on Sentiment
[2012-02-20]Under a sizable capital inflow scenario, and given that the PBoC has set 2012’s M2 target growth at 14%, we maintain our view that another two RRR cuts will be needed this year.
The probability of an RRR cut in Feb has dropped below 50%
If China is to maintain M2 growth at 14% in 2012 and if capital inflows remain sizable, two to three RRR cuts will be needed
China Inside Out: What Over-Investment?
[2012-02-14]China's investment-to-GDP ratio is indeed very high (46%), but it is still lower than the country's domestic savings-to-GDP ratio
January’s trade contraction reflected distortions from Chinese New Year. But with China’s growth still facing headwinds, more easing is still called for.
The seasonal food price spikes will not change the easing trend of inflation.
ANZ Research: Greater China Economic Insight
[2012-02-08]While it is likely the pace of RMB appreciation will pick up before Vice President Xi’s visit to the US, it will also lose momentum afterwards.
GMO: Something's Fishy in China
[2012-02-07]Accusing the soft-landing camp of "uncritically accepting" China's growth story and placing an "overblown belief" in Beijing authorities, Chancellor listed 10 tell-tale traits of an economy on the verge of collapse
China’s manufacturing sectors are set to slow further into the first quarter of this year, due to headwinds from external markets and still weak domestic demand.
It might be a bit too early to declare that the euro area crisis is all over.
China’s ongoing slowdown will likely take GDP growth to around 8% in 1Q. That said, fading inflationary pressures currently provide more than enough room for further policy easing.
Despite the strong push by France on introducing an EU-wide financial transaction tax, it appears that the chance of such proposal being adopted by all EU countries in the near term is rather remote.
Prices are still likely to spike temporarily around the Chinese New Year, but the overall inflation trend should continue to normalize through 2012, leaving ample room for Beijing to ease policy to reflate the economy.
Easing inflation provides room for more easing measures which will keep China on track for a soft landing.
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